US Dollar Forecast: Bullish Bias Intact
The DXY index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, increased by 0.45% this week to 113.25 in advance of the weekend, helped along by a rise in U.S. Treasury rates in response to hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics. Even though the annual core CPI went down from 6.3% to 6.6% in September, this is still a big increase and shows that price pressures in the economy are still high.
Even though the aggressive tightening cycle could cause a very bad recession, the Fed is likely to keep raising interest rates quickly in the coming months because inflation risks are leaning toward the upside. To be sure, policymakers appear to be emphasizing the price stability part of their job above the increasingly weakening growth profile.
For now, the “pivot theory” could be disproven if market participants discount a “more restrictive for longer” monetary policy stance and FOMC terminal rate expectations rise significantly above futures market levels. The U.S. dollar should profit from this scenario because it would maintain a positive skew in bond rates and increase the dollar’s “carry premium” relative to other major currencies.
Technically speaking, the DXY index is just below a major barrier of resistance close to 113.85. It gained ground on Friday. A break above this level in the coming sessions might signal a run for the multi-decade high at 114.77 and then 116.40, the top of a short-term rising wedge. If sellers come back and start a bearish reversal from current levels, the first support for bears is at 111.00/110.90. In the event of an additional decline, attention will turn to the 109.80 level.
Social Security COLA Increase: What It Means for Your Benefits
The Social Security Administration will release the annual cost-of-living adjustment on Thursday. This will give millions of older Americans whose incomes have been cut by inflation a little bit more money. The so-called “cost-of-living adjustment,” or Social Security COLA will increase benefits every month in January by an amount that is likely to be the highest in four decades.
Since 1975, the Social Security Administration has changed benefit payments every year to account for inflation. This is done to protect the buying power of the more than 70 million pensioners and disabled people who depend on Social Security.
What is a Social Security COLA increase?
According to CBS News, a cost of living adjustment of 8.7 percent in 2023 would result in an average monthly rise of $144.1. With this change, the average monthly payout will increase from $1,658 in 2022 to $1,802 in 2023.
CBS News pointed out that the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2023 will affect payments due in December 2022, but payments won’t be sent out until January 2023. As of January 11, 2023, beneficiaries whose birthdays fall between the first and tenth of the month will begin receiving payments that include the 2023 cost-of-living adjustment.
First payments will be made on January 18 for individuals born between November 11 and December 20, and on January 25 for those born between December 21 and December 31.
Expect the COLA to be at least 8.5%, the largest yearly rise since the COLA of 11.2% in 1981, even if September inflation data is substantially better.
The CPI for wage earners and office workers in urban areas is used to figure out the COLA. Specifically, it is based on the annualized rate of inflation seen during the third quarter. The data for July, August, and September will be added up and divided by three to get an average value. The percentage of change for 2023 will be calculated by comparing the number for 2022 to the average for the third quarter of 2021.
What is Social Security COLA
The Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) in Social Security is best thought of as a way to pay for inflation, which means that living costs go up. In a perfect world, Social Security COLA benefits would rise in tandem with the rate of inflation so that the millions of retirees who rely on the program wouldn’t see their buying power decline. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is the “increase” given annually to account for inflation.
Social Security COLA -Tethering Inflation
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) has been used as a measure of inflation for the program since 1975. In the CPI-W, there are eight main groups of expenses, with dozens of smaller groups as subgroups.
Each of these smaller groups has its own weight in the overall index. The CPI-W is a single number because of the weightings, so it’s easy to compare it from month to month or year to year to see if prices are going up, staying the same, or declining.
Figuring it Out
Social Security COLA that recipients receive is surprisingly simple to figure out. In this article, we will compare the average CPI-W reading from the third quarter of the current year (July-September) to the same data from the third quarter of the previous year. There has been inflation, and recipients will get a raise if the average CPI-W for this year is higher than the average CPI-W for last year.
To figure out the increase in benefits, the percentage increase in the average CPI-W from the previous year is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. We hope to bring you more on the Social Security COLA increase this year.
The Stock Market Earnings Comeback on the Horizon
Stock market earnings: Analysts are anticipating events that might spark the next stage of the rebound for bank equities after a few range-bound months. Wall Street anticipates that the big banks’ results will be influenced by loan growth, interest rates, and reserve releases.
This week, stocks were difficult to hold down, and if profits come in at par with expectations or higher, the earnings season will officially begin next week, supporting the recovery even more.
The main averages recorded a positive week after overcoming the Washington debt ceiling impasse. Congress approved a short-term agreement that will push out the market’s concern over the debt ceiling overhang until December.
A poor employment report and rising oil prices were not enough to stop investors from buying banks and energy equities this week.
“You had to be pleased by how markets were able to come back this week in the face of Washington turmoil, delta fears, multiyear highs in crude oil, and a much lower than expected jobs figure,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.
The S&P 500 dropped more than 5% from its peak on Monday due to a market correction that started in September, but then equities started to recover. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% for the week and is now only 3.4% from its record high, signaling stock market earnings potential.
This week, Goldman Sachs stood by its upbeat year-end projection, forecasting that equities would begin to climb the worry wall.
In a letter to clients, David Kostin, the top U.S. equity strategist at Goldman, stated in a letter that his S&P 500 price estimate for the year ending 2021 is still 4,700, or roughly 7% higher than its present level.
According to Scott Ellis, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, “this stock market earnings season will be an excellent test to assess what management teams say and how much insight they have” regarding future sales and profitability.
These blue chips will update Wall Street on their performance over the last three months, in addition to other things. They are also expected to provide some insight into what they anticipate for the key fourth quarter and perhaps even provide a sneak peek into their outlook. for 2023.
Focus on the dollar index in the Stock market earnings
Although banks may gain from higher interest rates, most investors and consumers are hopeful that inflation will eventually start to moderate sufficiently to allow the Federal Reserve to pause the pace of rate increases.
The Fed’s ability to consider a shift will primarily depend on the forthcoming inflation statistics. Next week, the US government will provide the most recent monthly readings on both consumer and wholesale prices.
The metric that investors will be paying the closest attention to is the consumer price index or CPI. Over the preceding 12 months through August, the CPI increased by 8.3%. According to economists, September’s growth will moderate somewhat to 8.1%.
The fact that wages make up a significant portion of the inflation picture and are still historically high, despite the fact that wage growth slowed somewhat in September to 5% year-over-year, presents a significant challenge for the Fed.
For the Fed to feel secure, wage growth “has to be lower,” according to Luke Tilley, the chief economist at Wilmington Trust.
Sheldon stated that before the Fed thinks that inflation is completely under control, wage growth should fall to roughly 3.5%.
Although the stock market earnings season should be robust, there may be some inflation and supply-related red flags that cause the market to get uneasy about the year-end scenario.
The dangers of increased inflation, Fed tapering, and an uncertain earnings season remain, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
This was hinted at last week when Bed Bath & Beyond stock plunged 25% after the company reported a sharp decline in traffic in August, leading to a drop in its stock market earnings. Over the course of the summer, Bed Bath & Beyond had rising inflation prices, particularly at the conclusion of its second quarter in August, which harmed its stock market earnings.
Bonds and Stocks Drop in the Third Quater
Investors should be ready for much more turmoil in the future after recent losses in bonds and stocks.
Bonds rates have skyrocketed in the third quarter as investors continue to lose faith in Fed’s ability to loosen their tightening on monetary policies. The equities in America have been put in the 2008 financial crisis crash course.
Despite recovering hopes which have been signaled by the recovery of the S&P 500s, the hopes fell as fast as the stock spooked by a sharp fall.
Overseas markets suffered as central banks worldwide lifted charges and Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. China’s Covid-19 lockdowns additionally threatened the worldwide economic system. An MSCI index of worldwide shares exterior the U.S. has declined 11% during the quarter. This has brought its year-to-date losses to twenty-eight%. Debt markets are under stress: The Bank of England this week launched an emergency intervention to revive order in bond markets after an authority tax-cut plan sparked wild swings.
The rate of inflation is still persistently high. In late September, the Fed increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row, showing no signs of turning around and promising to keep up the pace.
Energy supplies and supply lines throughout the world have been severely impacted by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. China, which accounts for over 19% of the global GNP, is experiencing a severe recession in its economy.
High-profile corporations including FedEx (FDX) and Ford have issued earnings warnings. Additionally, the U.S. dollar’s appreciation versus foreign currencies puts pressure on corporate profitability while also fueling worries about a future liquidity crisis. Among others, (F) has alarmed investors.
Bonds and Stock Investors
Investors’ attention has moved in only two weeks from wondering if the summer rally from mid-June to mid-August would be rekindled and potentially prolonged to worrying if a worldwide recession is imminent.
Even the possibility of a secular bear market has been raised. When there is a prolonged period of diminishing returns caused by factors unrelated to traditional business cycles, that is when it happens.
On September 27, the broad-market Morningstar US Market PR Index fell below its prior low from June 16. By Wednesday, the index had dropped 23.05% for the year and around 8.53% during the previous 30 days.
Even the most upbeat forecasters agree it would take more convincing proof that the Fed’s rate policies are succeeding before the central bank may be able to loosen its control over the economy, allowing the stock market to resume its upward flight path.
The Fed wants to achieve price stability across the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing and lowering demand for goods and services as well as for jobs. The possibility of an economic recession exists.
Investors in bond funds may have known that 2022 wouldn’t be pleasant, but the losses they are seeing this year are nevertheless startling.
After the August Consumer Price Index report came in hotter than anticipated and the Federal Reserve responded with an unprecedented third consecutive hike in the federal-funds rate of 0.75 percentage points, the falls in fixed-income funds have accelerated in recent weeks.
Long-term bond funds, or those with maturities of ten years or more, have been most damaged since they are the most susceptible to swings in interest rates.
Bond funds started to decline at the beginning of this year as investors predicted the Fed would have to raise interest rates for the first time in a long time to battle growing inflation. Bond funds have suffered losses as a result of the Fed’s repeated increases in interest rates.
Bond yields and prices follow different trajectories. The returns on existing bonds become less alluring as interest rates rise.
Investors in bond funds have also sold off amid earlier turbulence in the bond market. Investors were alarmed in 1994 as a result of a number of interest rate increases as well as other occasions like the Mexican peso crisis. The estimated net outflows for the year came to nearly $49.3 billion, or roughly 13% of the assets at the end of the prior year.
Investors in taxable bond funds sold an estimated $34.0 billion in bonds in 2000 as a result of the bond market’s decline in 1999 (caused by rising rates despite strong economic growth and forecasts for increased inflation). This represents approximately 6.6% of assets, or assets as of the end of the year.
Bonds and Stocks Under Feds Mercy
Since bonds often have minimal correlations with equities, they can also promote diversification. Bonds often have a smaller correlation with equities than the majority of other main asset classes, which increases their capacity to lessen risk at the portfolio level—even during times of rising interest rates.
Bonds and stocks correlations have seldom risen beyond 0.6, and only then during the most severe periods of increasing rates and/or inflation, according to our examination of historical stress periods for inflation and interest rates. Bonds can therefore continue to be a significant factor in lowering portfolio risk even when fixed-income performance is subpar.
In a briefing titled “Anatomy of a Rolling Recession” on August 30, Edward Yardeni, founder and president of Yardeni Research, a provider of global investment strategies and advisory services, stated that he and his team believe the economy has been in a “rolling recession since the start of this year.”
Yardeni predicts it may go on till the end of the year. He points out that the first half of the year saw a little fall in real GDP due to a lack of new cars, the housing market being in a recession, and lower capital expenditures on nonresidential structures in the commercial and health, electricity, communications, and industrial sectors.
Many of the most upbeat forecasters agree it would take more convincing proof that the Fed’s rate policies are succeeding before the central bank may be able to loosen its control over the economy, allowing the stock market to return to an upward flight path.
The Fed wants to achieve price stability across the economy by increasing borrowing costs and lowering demand for goods and services as well as for jobs. The possibility of a recession exists. What happens next to bonds and stocks?
Stock Futures Waver Ahead of ECB Meeting, Fed Comments
U.S. inventory futures flitted between beneficial properties and losses as buyers awaited a European Central Bank policy meeting and a public look by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
S&P 500 futures had been flat, a day after the index closed larger, ending a two-day shedding streak. Blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Common futures and futures for the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 had been additionally little modified.
Why Apple Keeps Going Pro
Apple has lengthy mastered the artwork of the upsell. The latest batch of iPhones could show to be the most important take a look at but of the corporate’s skill to maintain its prospects from buying and selling down.
They’ve loads to select from today. With the brand new iPhone 14 household announced on Wednesday, Apple now sells 26 completely different configurations of its smartphone in contrast with the 16 it bought as new 5 years in the past. The lineup ranges in value from $420 to just about $1,600—the latter costlier than even a number of the firm’s Mac computer systems. Apple additionally used Wednesday’s occasion to showcase a batch of latest Apple Watches and a long-awaited replace to the AirPod Professional earbuds. The merchandise will anchor a wearables enterprise that now generates greater than $40 billion in annual income.
Fed’s Top Banking Regulator Calls for Safer, Fairer Financial System
WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve’s new regulatory chief mentioned Wednesday that the central financial institution ought to be extra attuned to creating the monetary system safer and fairer to shoppers, whereas signaling he would conduct a more-rigorous assessment of financial institution mergers.
The remarks from Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr, his first in public since taking workplace July 19, counsel a extra aggressive method to overseeing Wall Road than his Republican predecessor Randal Quarles.
A Loss for Richemont’s Activist Is Still a Small Win
Though an activist has misplaced its marketing campaign at one in all Europe’s prime luxurious corporations, the very fact it confirmed up in any respect and was taken critically is new.
On Wednesday, shareholders at Switzerland-based Compagnie Financière Richemont which owns manufacturers similar to Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, voted in opposition to nominating Bluebell Capital Accomplice’s candidate to the board of administrators. The London-based hedge fund wished Francesco Trapani, the previous chief govt of knickknack model Bulgari, on the board to counterbalance Richemont’s highly effective founder Johann Rupert.
U.K. Looks Like a Basket Case, But Markets Haven’t Lost Faith Yet
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